Threat Assessment Says U.S. Can't Handle Foreign Adversaries

U.S. Intelligence Flags China as the Leading Global Threat

A new threat assessment released Tuesday, March 25, by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) highlights a growing alignment between America's four main adversaries: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. 
The report identified China as the "actor most capable of threatening U.S. interests globally, though it is also more cautious than Russia, Iran and North Korea about risking its economic and diplomatic image in the world by being too aggressive and disruptive." 
During a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing later that day, Chairman Tom Cotton warned, "Many of the threats we face are truly existential. Communist China is actively working to replace the United States as the world's dominant superpower. Given these threats, we have to ask are our intelligence agencies well-postured against these threats? I'm afraid the answer is no, at least not yet."

Here are four main takeaways from the assessment to keep in mind. 
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China and Russia Accelerate Military and Cyber Tactics

ODNI's report described China's tactics as multifaceted, involving military posturing, economic leverage and even influence operations. "China is using complex, whole-of-government campaigns featuring coercive military, economic, and influence operations short of war to assert its positions and strength against others, reserving more destructive tools for full-scale conflict," it read.
The report added that in 2025, China is expected to "apply stronger coercive pressure against Taiwan" and continue advancing its maritime claims in contested regions — much like Russia did with Ukraine in 2022. 
The report also warned that China is the "most active and persistent" cyber threat to both the U.S. government and private sector and "almost certainly has a multifaceted, national-level strategy designed to displace the United States as the world's most influential AI power by 2030."
Russia, meanwhile, is developing a more survivable nuclear force, according to ODNI Director Tulsi Gabbard. She told lawmakers, "Russia has the battlefield advantage [and] is grinding forward slowly." 

Evidence of Axis-Like Cooperation Against the U.S.

The report detailed how these nations are increasingly supporting each other, especially through the lens of the Ukraine conflict. Numerous analysts have cited for years how China, Iran, North Korea and Russia, would likely be the new version of the Axis powers in a World War III scenario.
"[China] is providing economic and security assistance to Russia's war in Ukraine through support to Moscow's defense industrial base, including by providing dual-use material and components for weapons," the assessment read. "China's support has improved Russia's ability to overcome material losses in the war and launch strikes into Ukraine… [and] to withstand U.S. sanctions."
It also noted, "Iran has become a key military supplier to Russia, especially of UAVs [drones], and in exchange, Moscow has offered Tehran military and technical support to advance Iranian weapons, intelligence, and cyber capabilities." 
As for Pyongyang's involvement, "North Korea has sent munitions, missiles, and thousands of combat troops to Russia to support the latter's war against Ukraine."
Tulsi Gabbard remarked, "North Korea's growing links to Russia have allowed Pyongyang to reduce its dependence on China and gain access to 'stronger strategic and conventional capabilities' to challenge the U.S."

Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Chemical Weapons Concerns

Tulsi Gabbard also addressed concerns over Iran's nuclear program. She told senators, "Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003." 
Still, she acknowledged, "Iran's enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons." 
The ODNI report warned, "In the past year, there has been an erosion of a decades-long taboo on discussing nuclear weapons in public that has emboldened nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decision-making apparatus. Khamenei remains the final decision-maker over Iran's nuclear program, to include any decision to develop nuclear weapons."

Cartels and Terrorism

Tulsi Gabbard expanded the scope of threats to include transnational crime. "Threats presented by several non-state actors: Cartels, gangs and other transnational criminal organizations in our part of the world are engaging in a wide array of illicit activity to endanger the health, welfare and safety of everyday Americans," she said.
She further observed, "For a year-long period ending in October 2024, cartels were largely responsible for the deaths of more than 54,000 US citizens from synthetic opioids." 
Senator Martin Heinrich questioned why Canada was excluded from the fentanyl trafficking discussion, to which Gabbard replied, "The focus in my opening and the ATA [annual threat assessment] was really to focus on the most extreme threats in that area."
The report also brought renewed attention to jihadist threats, citing the New Year's Eve ISIS-inspired attack in New Orleans that left 15 dead.